Cognitive Bias Analysis 認知偏誤分析
Released已發布Identify and analyze cognitive biases including confirmation bias, anchoring, availability heuristic, and sunk cost fallacy in decision-making contexts. Use this skill when the user needs to audit a decision for bias, understand why a team keeps making the same mistakes, design debiasing interventions, or evaluate whether a conclusion is based on evidence or cognitive shortcuts — even if they say 'are we fooling ourselves', 'why do we keep getting this wrong', or 'is this analysis biased'.
社會科學技能：Cognitive Bias Analysis 分析與應用。
Overview概述
Cognitive biases are systematic deviations from rational judgment. They're not random errors — they're predictable patterns that affect everyone, including experts. This skill helps identify which biases are at play in a specific decision context and design countermeasures.
Framework 框架
IRON LAW: Name the Specific Bias, Not Just "Bias"
"This decision might be biased" is not analysis. Identify the SPECIFIC
bias by name, explain its mechanism, and show how it applies to this
particular situation. Different biases require different countermeasures.
Bias Audit Process
- Describe the decision: What is being decided? By whom? Based on what evidence?
- Identify potential biases by name: Which specific biases (confirmation, anchoring, sunk cost, groupthink, overconfidence, availability, etc.) could be influencing this decision?
- Find the evidence: What specific behavior or reasoning pattern indicates the bias?
- Assess impact: How much does this bias affect the decision quality? (High/Med/Low)
- Design countermeasures: What specific debiasing technique addresses each identified bias?
For the full bias catalog (12 biases × mechanism × example) and
debiasing techniques per bias, see references/debiasing-protocols.md.
Output Format輸出格式
# Cognitive Bias Audit: {Decision Context}
Examples範例
Correct Application
Scenario: Company deciding whether to continue a failing product launch (6 months in, NT$5M spent)
| Bias | Evidence | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Sunk cost | "We've already invested NT$5M, we can't stop now" | High — past spending is irrecoverable and irrelevant to the forward decision |
| Overconfidence | "Our revised forecast shows it will turn around in Q3" — but previous 3 forecasts were also wrong | Medium — team is systematically overestimating success probability |
| Confirmation | Team only citing the 2 positive customer reviews while ignoring 50 negative ones | High — selectively filtering information |
Debiased question: "If a competitor offered us this product line for free, would we take it?" If the answer is no, the product should be discontinued regardless of sunk costs ✓
Incorrect Application
- "The team is biased" without specifying which bias → Not actionable. Violates Iron Law: name the specific bias.
Gotchas注意事項
- Everyone has biases, including you: The analyst conducting the bias audit is also biased. Use structured processes (checklists, red teams) rather than relying on self-awareness.
- Bias identification ≠ bias elimination: Knowing about a bias reduces but does not eliminate its effect. Debiasing requires structural interventions (processes, incentives), not just awareness.
- Motivated reasoning looks like analysis: When someone has a preferred outcome, they unconsciously construct logical-sounding arguments for it. Check: did the conclusion come before or after the analysis?
- False balance: Not every decision is biased. Sometimes the team's leaning is correct. Don't force-fit biases where they don't exist.
- Cultural context: Some biases manifest differently across cultures. Authority bias is stronger in hierarchical cultures. Groupthink manifests differently in collectivist vs individualist settings.
References參考資料
- For behavioral economics applications of biases, see the econ-behavioral skill
- For group decision-making debiasing protocols, see
references/debiasing-protocols.md